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Mobility on demand market to be worth $200 billion by 2024, India and China to emerge as key revenue pockets

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The appreciable growth of mobility on demand market is projected to be one of the most significant trends that the globe would witness in the next decade. The ongoing exponential popularity of ride hailing, car sharing and last-mile delivery services is just the beginning of a global shift away from personal vehicle ownership to a shared, on-demand model. Research shows that car sharing is capable of reducing car ownership with an estimation of 1 shared vehicle replacing 15 owned vehicles. The increasing cost of vehicle ownership, limitations on infrastructure expansion, increasing commute times, and the demand to curb GHG emissions have brought about a change in the millennial generation’s relationship with automobiles, which is likely to significantly impact mobility on demand market trends.

UK car rental market size, by application, 2017 & 2024 (USD Million)
UK car rental market size, by application, 2017 & 2024 (USD Million)

In the last century, private automobiles brought about a paradigm shift in urban mobility. But the dependency on oil, production of greenhouse gases, congestion and ever-increasing demands on urban land for parking spaces have created a combination of problems that has now led to an inclination toward on demand mobility. Statistics show that more than half the oil in the U.S. is consumed by urban vehicles that produce 20% of the total CO2 emissions. Additionally, the construction of new roads has not kept up with increasing transportation demand, complicating the situation further and causing soaring problem with congestion.

In 2011, studies exhibited that the urban American travel time has been increased by 5.5 million hours, a figure that is projected to increase by 50% by 2020. Parking compounds the congestion problem in an urban setting where land is already in short supply. Rapid increase in urban population, which is estimated to reach 5 billion by 2030 and rising trend of car ownership in developing countries will worsen the problems on a global scale. Inevitably, powered by the aforementioned factors, private automobiles have come to be widely recognized as unsustainable solution for the future of personal urban mobility, leading to the expansion of mobility on demand industry.

It is expected that globally, shared platforms will account for the most miles driven in urban settings by 2024. Given that car ownership is significantly high in Europe and North America, these regions might not register a game changing effect as far as the regional landscape of the mobility on demand market growth is concerned. However, in countries like India and China, where the government is battling to control conditions like traffic congestion and air pollution, mobility on demand market will gain commendable traction. Both the aforementioned nations for instance, have a low car ownership percentage, however, both are harbingers of emerging economies where the middle class is rapidly growing and is the recipient of increasing disposable incomes. With the hundreds of millions of newly affluent Chinese and Indians requiring more on-demand mobility, Asia Pacific mobility on demand market will witness robust growth in the ensuing years. Indeed, APAC mobility on demand industry size is expected to be pegged at $2 billion by 2024.

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Mobility on demand industry has seemingly brought about an upsurge in the development of autonomous vehicles. For instance, Uber is investing heavily in bringing driverless cars to the roads as estimates show that 60% to 80% of the revenues remain with the car owner. By eliminating the need of a driver, ride hailing services like Uber are persevering to keep most of the revenue with the service provider. The profit perspective is highly motivating the development of driverless and autonomous cars, that are in turn expected to profoundly change mobility on demand market trends within the next 5 to 15 years.

However, it is to be noted that autonomous vehicles may not entirely solve the problems of congestion in an urban setting, as a large number of vehicles will still be retained on the streets. Urban vehicles are often overengineered and underutilized, as an automobile is designed to attain speeds of 100 miles per hour but typically travels at 15 to 25 miles per hour. Statistics also point out that private automobiles are parked 90% of the time. In future, on demand mobility market is expected to march beyond the bounds of ride hailing and car sharing and present itself in the form of small electric cars which can be taken off a rack of such vehicles with the swipe of a user’s card and can be dropped off in one such stack once the user has reached the destination. A development of this degree is certain to have a path-breaking impact on mobility on demand industry outlook.

The success of ride hailing services such as Lyft, Uber, and Ola has come to be highly dependent on new mobility on-demand market players, as they strive to build trust with key stakeholders such as regulators, consumers, insurers and investors. Using technologies to monitor and improve road safety is a vital part of this trust-building process that is certain to speed up the future of mobility on demand market. As public and regulatory confidence come to prevail, mobility on demand industry will witness commendable growth, with a CAGR estimation of 10% over 2018-2024.

Author Name : Sunil Hebbalkar